Conclusions

The demand-driven future of animal agriculture includes both opportunities and perils. The principal conclusion of the most recent projections is to confirm the view that the

Table 2 Food consumption trends of various livestock products projected to the year 2020a

Total consumption

Region

Projected growth of consumption 1997 2020

1997c

2020

(million mt)

Per capita consumption

1997c

2020

Region

(million mt)

Developed

world

Beef

0.5

30

34

40

23

25

Pork

0.4

36

39

33

28

29

Poultry

1.5

28

39

36

22

29

Meat

0.8

98

117

35

75

87

Milk

0.6

251

286

43

194

210

Developing

world

Beef

2.9

27

52

61

6

9

Pork

2.4

47

81

67

10

13

Poultry

3.9

29

70

64

7

11

Meat

3.0

111

217

65

25

36

Milk

2.9

194

375

57

43

62

aSee notes to Table 1 for definitions.

bThe 2020 projections are from the July 2002 version of the IMPACT model.

cTotal and per capita consumption for 1997 are calculated from FAO 2002 and are three year moving averages centered on 1997. (From Refs. 3 and 5.)

aSee notes to Table 1 for definitions.

bThe 2020 projections are from the July 2002 version of the IMPACT model.

cTotal and per capita consumption for 1997 are calculated from FAO 2002 and are three year moving averages centered on 1997. (From Refs. 3 and 5.)

Table 3 Projected food consumption trends of meat and milk, 1997 2020a'b

Total

Projected annual consumption Per capita

Table 3 Projected food consumption trends of meat and milk, 1997 2020a'b

Total

Projected annual consumption Per capita

Region

growth 1997c

2020

in 2020

consumption in 2020

Meatd

Milk

Meat

Milk

Meat

Milk

(%/year)

(million mt)

(kg)

China

3.1

3.8

107

24

73

16

India

3.5

3.5

10

133

8

105

Other East Asia

3.2

2.5

5

2

54

29

Other South Asia

3.5

3.1

7

42

13

82

Southeast Asia

3.4

3.0

19

12

30

19

All of Latin America

2.5

1.9

46

85

70

130

Brazil alone

2.4

1.8

20

30

94

145

WANAe

2.7

2.3

13

42

26

82

Sub Saharan Africa

3.2

3.3

11

35

12

37

Developing world

3.0

2.9

217

375

36

62

Developed world

0.8

0.6

117

286

86

210

World

2.1

1.7

334

660

45

89

aSee Table 1 for product definitions.

bProjections are from the July 2002 version of IMPACT.

c1997 is the average of 1996 1998.

dTotal and per capita meat consumption for 1997 are annual averages of 1996 to 1998 values. eWestern Asia and North Africa. (From Refs. 3 and 5.)

aSee Table 1 for product definitions.

bProjections are from the July 2002 version of IMPACT.

c1997 is the average of 1996 1998.

dTotal and per capita meat consumption for 1997 are annual averages of 1996 to 1998 values. eWestern Asia and North Africa. (From Refs. 3 and 5.)

Livestock Revolution in developing countries will continue at least until 2020 and will increasingly drive world markets for meat, milk, and feed grains. Whether it is a good thing is not the issue; it is a phenomenon that will occur. Meat and milk production increases in developing countries will largely match the big consumption increases, and meat exports from Latin America to Asia will soar.

Even so, for the large majority of people in developing countries, consumption levels will remain very low, at 36 kg of meat per capita on average in 2020 (compared to 87 kg per capita in the developed countries as a whole). Average consumption in poor rural areas will surely be much lower than this, and especially for poor people. Protein and micronutrient deficiencies, which tend to disappear with increased consumption of livestock products, will likely remain widespread in developing countries.

The rapidly growing demand for livestock products in developing countries is a rare opportunity for smallholder farmers to benefit from a rapidly growing market, and for their families to have a viable source of much-needed micronutrients and dense calories. The worst thing that agencies targeted to poverty reduction and rural development can do is to cease public investments that facilitate sustainable small-operator forms of market-oriented livestock production. Lack of action will not stop the Livestock Revolution, but by abandoning the field to big industrial farming operations concentrated around large cities, it will help ensure that the form it takes is less favorable for poverty alleviation, better nutrition, and health.

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