Rising Consumption Of Meat And Milk To 2020

The IMPACT model projects developing countries aggregate consumption growth rates of meat and milk separately to be 3.0 and 2.9% per year, respectively, over the 1996/1998 to 2020 period, compared to 0.8 and 0.6%, respectively, in the developed countries. Aggregate meat consumption in developing countries is projected to grow by 106 mmt between the late 1990s and 2020, whereas the corresponding figure for developed countries is 19 mmt (Table 2). Similarly, additional milk consumption of 32 mmt of liquid milk equivalents (LME) in the developed countries will be dwarfed by the additional consumption of 177 mmt in developing countries.

In the developing countries, 71% of the additions to meat consumption are from pork and poultry; in the developed countries, the comparable figure is 74%. Poultry consumption in developing countries is projected to grow at 3.9% per annum through 2020, followed by

Table 1 Per capita meat and milk consumptiona by region, 1983 and 1997

Meat" Milkc

Table 1 Per capita meat and milk consumptiona by region, 1983 and 1997

Meat" Milkc

Region

1983d

1997

1983

1997

(kg)

China

16e

43

3

8

Other East Asia

22

31

15

19

India

4

4

46

62

Other South Asia

6

9

47

63

Southeast Asia

11

18

10

12

Latin America

40

54

93

112

WANAf

20

21

86

73

Sub Saharan Africa

10

10

32

30

Developing world

14

25

35

43

Developed world

74

75

195

194

United States

107

120

237

257

World

30

36

76

77

"Consumption is direct use as food, uncooked weight, bone in. Beef, pigmeat, sheep and goat meat, and poultry. cIncludes cow and buffalo milk and milk products used as human food, in liquid milk equivalents.

dDates are three year moving averages centered on the year shown. eValues are three year moving averages centered on the year shown, calculated from data in FAO 2002. fWestern Asia and North Africa. (From Ref. 3.)

"Consumption is direct use as food, uncooked weight, bone in. Beef, pigmeat, sheep and goat meat, and poultry. cIncludes cow and buffalo milk and milk products used as human food, in liquid milk equivalents.

dDates are three year moving averages centered on the year shown. eValues are three year moving averages centered on the year shown, calculated from data in FAO 2002. fWestern Asia and North Africa. (From Ref. 3.)

beef at 2.9% and pork at 2.4%. In the developed countries, poultry consumption is projected to grow at 1.5% per annum through 2020, with other meats growing at 0.5% or less (Table 2). As the growth rates in Table 3 suggest, high growth in consumption is spread throughout the developing world and is in no way limited to China, India, and Brazil, although the sheer size and vigor of those countries will mean that they will continue to increase their dominance of world markets for livestock products.

Real beef prices fell by a factor of three from 1970/ 1972 to 1996/1998. IMPACT projects the expected change in real prices to 2020, relative to 1996/1998. The overall picture for 2020 is a noticeable decline for wheat and rice (8 and 11%, respectively), a similar decline for milk (8%), more modest decreases for meats (3%), and stability or slight increases for feedgrains (+11 and — 4% for maize and soybeans, respectively).1-1-1 The Livestock Revolution will also cushion, if not prevent, the further fall in real global livestock prices.

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