o Revenue projections over time (5 + years) o Peak sales vs. priority ranking p Peak sales vs. R&D costs
Fig. 2.29. PPM Analyses: Opportunities? & Sales?
projected for the three products (three product profiles) and compared to guide R&D on the importance of particular profiles and even specific properties in a profile impacting future potential use of such products. Such profile and sales data is used to move a product forward to market or to kill it.
Bubble diagrams are used to identify and gauge opportunities (or lack there of) in a graph for two key parameters describing the products (science or marketing data). Each parameter on the x- and y-axes is rated from lowest to highest values. Each bubble is a molecule or product. A third parameter can be introduced by altering the size of the bubbles to indicate, for example, sales potential or likelihood of success.
Sales analyses are generated by the marketing groups who already are presenting some sales numbers on a weekly, even daily, basis to senior management. Prescriptions are generated for products used in the retail markets distributed by community pharmacies, mostly for oral products and a few other formulations to some extent. Other channels for product distribution (e.g., hospitals, clinics, physician offices) purchase products through wholesalers or directly from a company. Sales can be reported in dollars or a combination of dollars and prescription levels. Common time periods for sales reports are monthly, quarterly, and annually. Sales projections for a new product in development are based on a likely price often similar to other marketed products for the same disease. Competitive products need to be taken into consideration, either ones already or soon to be on the market. Usually a 5-year sales forecast is desired for a new product, and a goal is to produce a blockbuster, $1 billion, in this time frame. Peak sales are compared with the priority rankings previously noted and to R&D costs.
A sample bubble diagram is presented here (Fig. 2.30), wherein safety is combined with efficacy and market size in one comparison for the product portfolio of the seven products. Product no. 7 receives a very high assessment with good efficacy and good safety and pretty good market size; this product would be advanced quickly. High efficacy and safety does not ensure high sales if the product has a small niche
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