Batesons Vibratory Theory


BAYES' THEOREM. This theoretical speculation, often employed in psychological statistics (e.g., Hays, 1963/1994), indicates the relation among various conditional probabilities. Bayes' theorem is named in honor of Thomas Bayes (1702-1761), an 18th century

English clergyman and mathematician who did early work in probability and decision theory. Although Bayes wrote on theology, he is best known for his two mathematical works, "Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions" (1736) - a defense of the logical foundations of Newton's calculus against the attack of Bishop Berkeley; and "Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances" (1763) - a posthumously published work that attempts to establish that the rule for determining the probability of an event is the same whether or not anything is known beforehand on any trials or observations concerning the event in question. In its simplest version, Bayes' theorem may be expressed in the following way: For two events, A and B, in which none of the probabilities p(A), p(B), and p(A and B) is either 1.00 or 0, the following relation holds: p(A|B) = p(B|A)p(A)/ p(B|A)p(A) + p(B|~A)p(~A). Bayes' theorem gives a way to determine the conditional probability of event A given event B, provided that one knows the probability of A, the conditional probability of B given A, and the conditional probability of B given ~A [Note: Once the probability of A is known, then the probability of ~A is simply 1-p(A)]. In psychology, Bayes' theorem has been used frequently as a model of choice behavior and attitude formation because it gives a mathematical rule for deciding how prior information (e.g., one's past choices or opinions) may be modified maximally in the light of new information. Moreover, in various practical situations -such as educational and clinical settings -good selection or diagnostic procedures are those that permit an increase in the probability of being correct about an individual given some prior information or evidence, and such conditional probabilities often may be calculated via Bayes' theorem. As a mathematical device, this theorem is necessarily true for conditional probabilities that satisfy the basic axioms of probability theory and Bayes' theorem, in itself, is not controversial. However, the question of its appropriate use has been an issue in the controversy between those who favor a strict "relative-frequency" interpretation of probability and those who allow a "subjective" interpretation of probability as well. This issue emerges clearly when some of the probabilities used in figuring Bayes ' theorem in a given situation are associated with "states of nature" or with "non-repetitive" events in which it is usually difficult to give meaningful "relative-frequency" interpretations to probabilities for such states or "onetime" events. A term in probability reasoning related to Bayes' theorem, and advanced by the French mathematician Pierre Simon La Place (1749-1827), is called insufficient reason (or the principle of indifference) which states that a person is entitled to consider two events as equally probable if the individual has no reason to consider one more probable than the other. The criterion of insufficient reason enables the notion of "uncertainty" to be transformed into "risk" statements and provides a justification for the employment of "prior probabilities" in Bayesian inference in the absence of other bases for estimating them. Critics of this approach suggest that it leads to contradictions eventually and assert, consequently, that nothing useful may be inferred from such a result. See also ATTITUDE/ATTITUDE CHANGE, THEORIES OF; CHOICE AND PREFERENCE, THEORY OF; DECISION-MAKING THEORIES; PROBABILITY THEORY/LAWS. REFERENCES

Bayes, T. (1958). Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances (1763). Biometrika, 45, 293-315. Hays, W. L. (1963/1994). Statistics for psychologists. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston/Harcourt Brace.





BEHAVIOR THERAPY AND COGNITIVE THERAPY, THEORIES OF. The term behavior therapy originated in a 1953 report by O. Lindsley, B. F. Skinner, and H. Solomon that described their use of operant conditioning principles with psychotic patients. Later, A. Lazarus (1958) used the term in referring to J. Wolpe's application of the technique of reciprocal inhibition to neurotic patients, and H. Eysenck (1959) used behavior therapy to refer to the application of modern learning theory to neurotic patients' behavior. The early usage of the term behavior therapy was linked consistently to learning theory; it was called conditioning therapy, also, which had as its goal the elimination of nonadaptive behavior and the initiation and strengthening of adaptive habits. L. Krasner (1971) asserts that 15 factors within psychology coalesced during the 1950s and 1960s to create and form the behavior therapy theoretical approach: the concept of behaviorism in experimental psychology; instrumental/operant conditioning research; the treatment procedure of reciprocal inhibition; studies at Maudsley Hospital in London; the application of conditioning and learning concepts to human behavior problems in the United States from the 1920s through the 1950s; learning theory interpretations of psychoanalysis; use of Pavlovian classical conditioning to explain and change both normal and deviant behaviors; impact of concepts and research from social role learning and interactionism in social psychology and sociology; research in developmental and child psychology emphasizing modeling and vicarious learning; formulation of social influence variables and concepts such as demand characteristics, experimenter bias, placebo, and hypnosis; development of the social learning model as an alternative to the disease model of behavior; dissatisfaction with, and critiques of, traditional psychotherapy and the psychoanalytic model (cf., Gross, 1979); advancement of the idea of the clinical psychologist as "scientist-practitioner;" development in psychiatry of human and social interaction and environmental influences; and resurgence of utopian views of social-environmental planning. The unifying theme in behavior therapy is its derivation from empirically based principles and procedures.

Four general types of behavior therapy have been advanced by psychologists: interactive, instigation, replication, and intervention therapies; and five different approaches in contemporary behavior therapy are recognized: applied behavior analysis, neobehavior-istic mediational S-R model, social learning theory, multimodal behavior therapy, and cognitive-behavior modification. A number of specific behavior and cognitive therapies based on these principles and theories have been developed since the 1960s, such as rational-emotive therapy/ABC theory; cognitive therapy [the American psychiatrist Aaron Temkin Beck (1921- ) is often called the "father of cognitive therapy"]; self-instructional/stress inoculation; and covert modeling therapy [cf., ACT theory and therapy - formulation of the basic concepts of "acceptance and commitment therapy," or "ACT," that is grounded in radical behaviorism; corollary terms are "ACT-R," or behavioral analysis of a client seeking therapy; and "ACT-HC," or acceptance of limitations and commitment to healthy behavior and care]. It has been suggested that the various challenges facing behavior and cognitive therapy theories today concerning their procedures and effectiveness may best be met by the use of a "technical eclecticism" (cf., Lazarus, 1981), where there is a willingness to employ appropriate techniques across the various theoretical perspectives. However, the specific methods used in the diverse behavior therapy theories all have the common attributes of scientific examination of behavior grounded in learning theory, including the control of appropriate variables, the appreciation of data-based concepts, and the high regard for operational definitions of terms and replicability of results. The development of behavior therapy was not monolithic in concept, theory, or practice, and its roots are wide and varied. Thus, essentially, behavior therapy theory (cf., O'Donohue & Krasner, 1995) may best be characterized, generally, as the application of the laws of modern learning theory to all types of disorder, including individual, situ-ational, and environmental aspects. See also ABC THEORY/MODEL; BANDURA'S THEORY; BEHAVIORIST THEORY; DEPRESSION, THEORIES OF; LEARNING




Living Life

Living Life

Want to be and stay positive? Download This Guide And Discover 50 Tips To Have A Positive Outlook In Life. Finally! Reach your goals, face your fears and have a more fulfilled and happy life.

Get My Free Ebook

Post a comment